Zimbabwe will introduce a 100 trillion dollar note, in its latest attempt to keep pace with hyperinflation that has left its once-vibrant economy in tatters, state media said Friday. The new 100,000,000,000,000 Zim-dollar bill would have been worth about 300 US dollars (225 euros) at Thursday’s exchange rate on the informal market, where most currency trading now takes place, but the value of the local currency erodes dramatically every day.

And they wonder why everyone’s using US$ where possible these days.  Great for those who can get their hands on them, less so for those that can’t…

Mugabe, as quoted by the BBC this morning:

“I am happy we are being assisted by others and we have arrested cholera,” Mr Mugabe said in a speech, despite UN reports of a growing death toll. “Now that there is no cholera there is no case for war.”

Someone’s taking those military intervention rumours seriously, then. I also note that South Africa’s Limpopo province has declared a disaster area in the border district of Vhembe, including Musina, after 8 deaths and over 660 treatments linked to Zimbabwe’s cholera outbreak. No problem, then…

Events seem to be coming to something of a head at the moment, driven by the failure of the Zanu-PF government to do much about the current cholera outbreak that’s sweeping the country. First to speak out was Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who called for Mugabe to be ousted by force if necessary. He was swiftly followed by Mugabe’s favourite “embittered little bishop”, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, who again supported the use of force. He also raised the prospect of International Criminal Court action is Mugabe doesn’t step down willingly. Add in recent pronouncements by The Elders, the group of elder statesmen formed by Nelson Mandela, and the Ugandan-born Archbishop of York, John Sentamu, and it’s clear there’s a groundswell of opinion that enough is enough in Zimbabwe. And that’s without adding voices like Gordon Brown and Condoleeza Rice, who are easily ignored by Mugabe.

Still not convinced? It’s becoming ever more clear that the Government has lost or is losing the support of the military rank-and-file, as recent riots in Harare testify, while Zimbabwe Today reports joint military exercises between Zambia and Botswana that rumour has it are prelude to military intervention.

Interesting times. Of course, the prospect of military intervention may just be wishful thinking by some (and if it did occur, may well make the situation worse before it gets better), but the fact that some are now talking of it openly shows that frustration with Mugabe is growing.

• Cross-party National Economic Council to oversee economic recovery efforts.
• Call for international sanctions to be lifted - important re: those that US sanctions prevent Zimbabwe from using IMF or World Bank support.
• Independent Land Commission to oversee redistribution in a non-partisan way.  Compensation of dispossessed commercial farmers falls to UK.
• Draft Constitution to be prepared - no fixed timescale.  Specific reference to “enhancement of full citizenship” - possible relaxation of current rules?
• “No outsiders have a right to call or campaign for regime change in Zimbabwe” - that would be a Zanu-PF clause, I’m guessing…
• “all Zimbabweans regardless of race, ethnicity, gender, political affiliation and religion have the right to benefit from and participate in all national programmes and events without let or hindrance.” - as a supporter of Zimbabwean cricket, but not of ZC - that could be interpreted as a proscription against racial quotas in national teams.
• Guarantee of free political activity
• Guarantee of freedom of assembly and association, with retraining mandated for security services to ensure they understand this
• Impartiality of the civil service
• Political neutrality of traditional leaders
• Political neutrality of National Youth Training Programme, and ban on use of programme participants for partisan work
• Political neutrality of aid programmes, including NGOs
• Press freedom - outstanding applications for broadcast / newspaper licenses to be processed immediately
• Dissolving parliament requires both President and Prime Minister agreement
• Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee to oversee implementation (4 members from each of the three signatory parties)
• Annual review

Government structure:

If it seems a little cumbersome, that’s because it is.  That said, if Northern Ireland can run with 4 opposed parties in enforced coaltion, then this can be made to work too - if there’s the will on both sides to make it happen.  That’s a big if.

Sokwanele have the text of the agreement, which I’m currently ploughing through.  Happy reading.

No, I haven’t given up following the shenanigans around the MDC / Zanu-PF talks - I just didn’t see the point in writing about them given the lack of hard information.  Now, though, we apparently have a deal, which was initially due to be signed at 10am Zimbabwe time this morning - that’s about a hour and a half ago.  The UK news media have yet to confirm that the signing actually happened, though.

So for the moment, I’m awaiting the details along with everyone else.  The bones of the deal are public - Mugabe as President & Head of State with control of the military, Tsvangirai as Prime Minister and Head of Government with control of the police; with a cabinet of 31 ministers (15 Zanu-PF, 13 MDC/T, 3 MDC/M) and 15 deputy ministers (8 Zanu-PF, 6 MDC/T and 1 MDC/M).  But the devil is in the detail, and who gets what portfolio and their willingness to co-operate is key.  Portfolios will be known today, apparently - but with state media already warning about MDC being the “enemy within”, co-operation looks to be more difficult to guarantee.

More thoughts once the details are in the public domain and I’ve had the chance to read them…

UPDATE: …and the signing ceremony is apparently underway.

I really don’t know what to write about MDC’s decision not to contest Friday’s run-off - they really were between a rock and a hard place, but with so much already endured by their supporters I would have thought they’d see the process through, regardless of how the odds were stacked against them.  Tsvangirai is promising details of the party’s next steps later in the week - the only option I can see for them now is to try and make use of the lack of legitimacy that any new Mugabe-led government will have to form their own “government-in-exile” (and let’s face it, it will have to be in exile if any of its members are to live longer than a few days) and try to force the situation forward through that.

It’s pleasing that more African nations are now speaking out - but that’s really all they can do.  It’s really not a pleasant situation.

MDC’s announcement has at least put Zimbabwe back at the top of the news, at least here in the UK.  There’s been a lengthy discussion on the subject on BBC Radio Five this morning - it’s still ongoing as I write this, but once done it’ll be available to stream through the BBC’s Listen Again service for the next week.  Well worth a listen.

ZEC have confirmed 27th June as the date for the Presidential run-off - well past the date required by law, but I understand that Presidential powers have been used to amend the relevant laws accordingly (although how Presidential laws can be used when there technically is no President at the moment is another thing).  Tsvangirai will take part, but has also revealed to the BBC that there are “noises off” from Zanu-PF about the possibility of a unity government, and that MDC will listen to any formal approach.

I can’t help but think that any attempt to form a unity government is just an attempt by Zanu-PF to retain some sort of power, or to appear to be reasonable while having no such intentions (especially of retaining Mugabe as President is one of their terms - they know MDC would never accept that, but by offering and having MDC refuse they can at least try to claim their efforts to calm the situation were rebuffed).  It does mean there could be a few twists and turns in the story yet, though,

Not that they really had any choice - it was either take part, of hand Bob a “legitimate” victory on a silver platter. The text of Morgan Tsvangirai’s speech announcing the MDC’s decision to take part is below the cut.

They’ve set pre-conditions, including free access to foreign observers & media and an SADC ‘peacekeeping’ force, which are unlikely to be met - but I doubt that will stop them taking part now. The big question is, will he get enough votes to overcome Zanu-PF’s certain attempts to rig the vote - it’s not a simple equation of Tsvangirai’s votes + Makoni’s votes = win, as the growing campaign of violent action against anyone seen as likely to vote MDC testifies. Rather, the MDC are banking on several things to tilt the balance in their favour:

1. That international pressure will force Mugabe to at least stick to the rules of the first round, including scores-on-the-doors that will allow independent observers to get an accurate count.
2. That that same pressure will force Zanu-PF to pull back on the violence once the poll approaches, to give the appearance of freeness and fairness. Remember, it’s the illusion of legitimacy that Mugabe and Zanu-PF crave, making this one of the few times where outside pressure can actually have an effect.
3. That the wave of violence now underway will cause enough Zanu-PF supporters to rethink their position and vote MDC to balance out those who would have voted MDC, but who are now too scared to or have been displaced to locations where they can no longer vote.
4. That, having been the clear leader in all elections so far, they’ll have delivered the message that Zanu-PF can be beaten, and that that message will persuade even more of their support to get out and vote. Remember, turnout in the first round (even allowing for ‘ghosts’ on the voting roll) was low - if MDC can mobilise those who didn’t vote in the first round, they’ll have a chance. But the fear of reprisals is also their greatest enemy

All this assumes that the second round goes ahead at all, of course - by law, the run-off should be held within 3 weeks of the first round, which is now long past; even using ZEC’s interpretation of within 3 weeks of the first round leaves only two weeks to organise the poll, and it’s ironically likely Zanu-PF will use the rising violence as an excuse to postpone the vote for security reasons - giving them longer to try and cower the MDC vote.

The campaign will not be pretty, and further lives will no doubt be lost. But Zimbabwe is now within grasping distance of securing the change that they’ve already voted for - please let this one further push be the last that’s required.
more…

So the fully-fiddled results are in - Tsvangirai 47.9%, Mugabe 43.2%, Makoni 8.3%, Towungana 0.6%. No-one really believes that they’re the accurate results, but they’re the ones we have to work with. The newly-reunited MDC now faces a tricky decision:

- Boycott the run-off in the name of saving the lives of their supporters now, and in doing so hand a legitimate victory to Mugabe (who will then continue to ruin the country for another 5 years, costing the Maker knows how many lives in the meantime, whether through hunger or long-term political violence); or

- Take part in a run-off that they know will result in a firestorm of short-term violence aimed at securing a victory for Bob, and that Zanu-PF will take any and all measures to rig to back up the “legitimate” vote that their violence will secure.

I’m glad I’m not the one making that decision. But for what the opinion of a Zimbabwean exile thousands of miles away is worth: I think they should take part, and use the political contacts they’ve made and support they’ve received from Tsvangirai’s whirlwind diplomacy over the past few weeks to make it as difficult as possible for Zanu-PF to get their way. The tragic but simple fact is that lives are going to be lost either way - and if the MDC genuinely want to minimise the coming disaster, then they need to get rid of Zanu-PF now, or use the run-off to strip them of all legitimacy - which is, after all, what they so desire.