60 hours now since the polls closed, and we’re up to 89 House of Assembly seats declared (MDC/Tsvangarai 41, MDC/Mutambara 5, Zanu-PF 43 – the MDC split into two factions in 2005, which is why they have two totals), with still nothing from the Senate or Presdential votes. This is Zimbabwe has the details, and a very interesting analysis of some cases where the official tally released by the ZEC has differed significantly from the ‘scores on the doors’ gathered by monitors:

At this stage the most blatant discrepancy can be clearly seen in ex-Vice President, Joice Majuru’s Mt Darwin West constituency. She recorded 6071 votes in the PVT results to win back her seat, as compared to the ZEC declared results of 13270. This constitutes inflation of over 100%. In Mashonaland Central, Shamva North constituency, Nicholas Goche polled 4195 votes in the PVT results, but the ZEC declared his win as 10385, more than double the PVT figure.

‘PVT’ is Parallel Vote Tabulation – counting up the scores on the doors at polling stations to get an unofficial result. The discrepancies show two things – first, that there’s an effort to cook the books going on, but second, as I mentioned in my first post about the elections, it’s impossible to rig the totals without people spotting what you’ve done fairly quickly.

By most reports, people are still waiting patiently for the full results to come out – the streets are quiet, and while the atmosphere is tense there’s still a feeling wait-and-see rather than any urge to start protesting. Some rumours have Bob already safely out of the country, others report he’s still working with his inner circle to ensure he retains his grip on power, with mixed success. The army and riot police are on patrol in “flashpoint” areas (particularly opposition strongholds in Harare), but they’re neither provoking anyone nor being provoked, which makes a pleasant change from previous elections. On the other hand, a South African observer delegation has reportedly returned home early after being on the receiving end of intimidation from the Central Intelligence Organisation (Mugabe’s secret police), so it’s not all good news, and the MDC leadership have reportedly gone into hiding after speculation that Mugabe may declare a state of emergency and have them arrested. With the realisation that there’s nothing anyone can do until Bob decides for himself, the waiting game continues…

EDIT: …and no sooner do I click Submit than the next set of results is drip-fed out of the ZEC. Currently tallies: 110 HoA constituencies declared, MDC/Tsvangarai 51, MDC/Mutambara 5, Zanu-PF 54.