Another quiet morning at ZEC - last update was 11am Zim time, and the totals are now MDC/Tsvangirai 91, MDC/Mutambara 5, Zanu-PF 93.

A group of NGOs have completed their sweep of the polling stations and have given their prediction based on the “scores on the doors”: MDC/Tsvangirai 99, Zanu-PF 95, MDC/Mutambara & others 12. They also show Tsvangirai narrowly getting a first-round win in the Presidential vote, with 50.3%, versus Mugabe’s 42.9% and Makoni’s 6.8%. The 4th candidate’s vote was statistically insignificant.

This raises an interesting possibility. The House of Assembly is 210 seats, so a working majority is 106 - if MDC/Tsvangirai can secure the support of the Mutambara faction and independents they’ll pass that point, but otherwise we’re looking at either a minority government (a shaky prospect in any country, never mind Zimbabwe), or a Tsvangirai-led Government of National Unity. Already there’s been some speculation around the web about the possibility of the post of Prime Minister being re-introduced for a Zanu-PF member (possibly Simba Makoni, returning to the fold), as a way of securing the support of those in the military who would otherwise object to an MDC government.

This possibility only raises the likelihood that some talks are going on in the background - and to be honest, that’s the only reason I can think of for the MDC’s lack of real protest at the speed the results are being released. They’ve followed through on their threat to release their own results - they’re the ones on the website linked above. As you’d expect, Zanu-PF are publicly calling it “wishful thinking”, while MDC have stated that “if the election commission decided to declare neither of the main candidates had won outright, the MDC would be prepared to take part in a second round.”

The saga continues…