I haven’t been following things Zimbabwean quite so closely these past few days, as it’s become so disheartening and frustrating. The general strike called by the MDC has had only limited support, thanks to a combination of bad publicity - it’s not like ZTV or The Herald are going to give it any mention - and the simple practicalities of life in Zimbabwe: most people just can’t afford to go without pay. With the High Court refusing to order the release of results, and ZEC using Zanu-PF’s (probably illegal) recount requests as an excuse to hold them back even further, there’s little sign of resolution.

In the rural areas, things are grim, with reports now of mutilations on top of the beatings already widely reported - with the MDC’s “salute” being an open hand, it seems some of the militia have now taken to cutting off the hands of MDC supporters.

MDC are flip-flopping on the idea of participating in a re-run - on the one hand, they know they’ve won the first round outright, and that participating in a second round is only going to increase the level of violence and legitimize official first-round results that everyone knows will be nowhere near accurate. On the other hand, refusing to take part simply hands Mugabe the Presidency, within the terms of the laws of the land, and gives him free reign to do whatever he likes for another 5 years - which will probably include increased violence against MDC supporters anyway. So now the line is that they’ll take part, but only if certain conditions are met:

MDC spokesman George Sibotshiwe said a secure environment had to exist first, with thorough international monitoring. But current conditions did not allow for a free and fair vote, he said.

The party would only take part if the Southern African Development Community could help oversee every stage of the count, he added.

Meanwhile, a petition has been launched to try and persuade Thabo Mbeki to come back to reality (he’s due to chair a special meeting of the UN Security Council on Wednesday, where Zimbabwe is almost certain to be raised), while there are plans for a protest at the Zimbabwean Embassy in London to mark Independence Day - or in this case, the country’s lack of independence from Bob. But as ever, there’s a fine line for those who would criticise Mugabe to tread, as criticism tends to fuel his persecution complex and make the situation worse - especially when such criticism comes from white, “colonial” countries. The BBC has an article that looks at this particular problem.

Put it all together, and the result is stalemate - certainly for as long at the MDC remain focussed on gaining support outside the country and not provoking Mugabe inside it. I fear the idea of the situation turning more violent than it already is, but I’m also beginning to wonder if there’s going to come a point when enough is enough and the people will take to the streets. If it ever happens, that will be the moment of truth for Zanu-PF and Mugabe - regardless of what the military commanders may say, and it certainly seems to be their hands that are guiding the situation at the moment, if the soldiers and policemen on the street refuse to respond, then it’s game over. But with MDC not being sure of who those groups would side with, they’re not prepared to take the risk of pushing for a “velvet revolution”. More’s the pity, some might say…