It’s pleasing that more African nations are now speaking out – but that’s really all they can do.  It’s really not a pleasant situation.

MDC’s announcement has at least put Zimbabwe back at the top of the news, at least here in the UK.  There’s been a lengthy discussion on the subject on BBC Radio Five this morning – it’s still ongoing as I write this, but once done it’ll be available to stream through the BBC’s Listen Again service for the next week.  Well worth a listen.

I can’t help but think that any attempt to form a unity government is just an attempt by Zanu-PF to retain some sort of power, or to appear to be reasonable while having no such intentions (especially of retaining Mugabe as President is one of their terms – they know MDC would never accept that, but by offering and having MDC refuse they can at least try to claim their efforts to calm the situation were rebuffed).  It does mean there could be a few twists and turns in the story yet, though,

They’ve set pre-conditions, including free access to foreign observers & media and an SADC ‘peacekeeping’ force, which are unlikely to be met – but I doubt that will stop them taking part now. The big question is, will he get enough votes to overcome Zanu-PF’s certain attempts to rig the vote – it’s not a simple equation of Tsvangirai’s votes + Makoni’s votes = win, as the growing campaign of violent action against anyone seen as likely to vote MDC testifies. Rather, the MDC are banking on several things to tilt the balance in their favour:

1. That international pressure will force Mugabe to at least stick to the rules of the first round, including scores-on-the-doors that will allow independent observers to get an accurate count.
2. That that same pressure will force Zanu-PF to pull back on the violence once the poll approaches, to give the appearance of freeness and fairness. Remember, it’s the illusion of legitimacy that Mugabe and Zanu-PF crave, making this one of the few times where outside pressure can actually have an effect.
3. That the wave of violence now underway will cause enough Zanu-PF supporters to rethink their position and vote MDC to balance out those who would have voted MDC, but who are now too scared to or have been displaced to locations where they can no longer vote.
4. That, having been the clear leader in all elections so far, they’ll have delivered the message that Zanu-PF can be beaten, and that that message will persuade even more of their support to get out and vote. Remember, turnout in the first round (even allowing for ‘ghosts’ on the voting roll) was low – if MDC can mobilise those who didn’t vote in the first round, they’ll have a chance. But the fear of reprisals is also their greatest enemy

All this assumes that the second round goes ahead at all, of course – by law, the run-off should be held within 3 weeks of the first round, which is now long past; even using ZEC’s interpretation of within 3 weeks of the first round leaves only two weeks to organise the poll, and it’s ironically likely Zanu-PF will use the rising violence as an excuse to postpone the vote for security reasons – giving them longer to try and cower the MDC vote.

The campaign will not be pretty, and further lives will no doubt be lost. But Zimbabwe is now within grasping distance of securing the change that they’ve already voted for – please let this one further push be the last that’s required.

On March 29th the people of Zimbabwe won an historic victory.

That historic and resounding victory should have heralded a new and joyful era for all Zimbabweans. Instead Zimbabweans have endured confusion, pain, death and despair as the result of a violent onslaught against the people by Zanu PF.

As is now well documented, my opponent in this race has decided to turn his thugs on the people. The former liberator has turned his back on the people of Zimbabwe and on the entire continent of Africa.

It is very, very sad for me to call Mugabe a former liberator. It is sad for me to say that he has turned his back on both his people and his continent. Mugabe was once my hero too. Because of his sacrifices, millions of our citizens are well educated and had great opportunities to grow and prosper.

But something happened to Mugabe on our long walk to freedom, something happened that hardened his heart. Something happened that made him abandon the very people he once fought to free.

He has unleashed violence on his own children, the people of Zimbabwe.

And for those carrying out the violence on the ground, the police, the militia, the army and the so called war veterans now is the time to give very serious thought to the implications of further attacks on innocent civilians. You are breaking Zimbabwean and international laws and the whole world is watching.

The time is now for our professional security services to follow their hearts and become professional again, rather than follow a former liberation hero on his path to destruction. You will be in Zimbabwe long after Mugabe is gone.

In view of the unfolding post-election tragedy, the leadership of the MDC, civil society, and all democratic forces have had a very difficult decision to make. We know the betrayal of ballots being followed by bullets. We know that another election may bring more violence, more gloom, more betrayal.

We know there should not be a runoff election – there was only one reason the ZEC announced results before completing verification. We know the verified total would have revealed the full extent of the dictatorship’s defeat – and the full extent of the peoples’ victory.

But we also know a runoff election could finalyl knock-out the dictator for good. A runoff election could be the final round in a very long fight to liberate ourselves from our former liberator.

We know that we have won, but do we nevertheless decide to contest a runoff election to hasten the end of this debacle? Or do we wait and hope for the political environment to improve, for mediation to start, for mediation to end….all the while the people continue to suffer?

I have asked the MDC, civil society and other democratic forces to assess the feeling of the people on the ground. Do they want a runoff election? Will they vote despite the violent attacks? Could they possibly have confidence in the ZEC again?

To be honest, the answers are very mixed. Some report that they believe the people are too afraid to vote, that they are displaced by the destruction of their homes and not even near their polling stations any more. Others point to the fact that the ZEC betrayed them once and will do so again. Others say it is simply not fair to push the people into an election.

I consider all of these valid points of view. No one can dispute that going into an alleged runoff of an election that you have already won – an election controlled by an opponent whose election tactics unapologetically include stealing and killing – is a risky venture indeed.

What matters now is what we, as Zimbabweans, think is the best way to move ourselves out of this crisis. Are we brave enough? Are we strong enough? Are we angry enough?

The overwhelming sentiment that emerged from the people of Zimbabwe is that they are ready for change now, not later. They want a chance for a better life now, and they believe that the MDC can give them that chance. They believe that we as nation are brave enough, we are strong enough and we are angry enough to fight an election once again. We as MDC believe our people would feel betrayed if we shied away from the final knock out. We have lost hundreds of people in the democracy movement since 1999. Their sacrifices must not be in vain. We must fulfill the dreams of our people who have been betrayed and traumatized since March 29th.

The MDC has decided that we will contest the runoff and the people will finally prevail. The people have spoken before, and the people will speak again. I am ready and the people are ready for the final round.

Legally this election should be no later than May 24th, two weeks from today, and that is the date we are preparing for. If Zanu PF and the ZEC hope to retain what little credibility they have left they will abide by the law and declare the Presidential runoff election between today and that date.

Therefore I shall return to Zimbabwe within the next two days.

I shall return to Zimbabwe to begin a Victory Tour. Some might say this term “Victory” is cold and callous given the hardships endured by the people.

But the people are victorious. And they are being punished for their victory. We must free ourselves from those who would steal victory from fellow brothers and sisters by using guns, sticks and screwdrivers.

In the last four weeks many leaders have rallied to the cause of Zimbabwe. To SADC Chairman Mwanamwasa and African Union Chairman Kikwete, and many of your colleagues, I want to say thank you. When Zimbabwe rejoins the family of democratic nations, history will remember what you did for your brave, peace loving African brothers and sisters now living in fear of their own government.

I want to thank the labor unions and Cosatu for refusing to allow the illegitimate regime of Zanu PF to access more weapons for use against its own people.

To Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and others in the international community, we thank you and appreciate all your work. We will continue to count on you, SADC and the AU, to ensure the upcoming runoff is administered fairly, with transparency, neutrality and professionalism.

And finally, I thank the people of Zimbabwe for their courage and devotion to democracy. And I ask them not to lose hope. Together let us finish the job. Together let us have faith that this time, the ballot paper will truly liberate our country.

I thank you.

- Boycott the run-off in the name of saving the lives of their supporters now, and in doing so hand a legitimate victory to Mugabe (who will then continue to ruin the country for another 5 years, costing the Maker knows how many lives in the meantime, whether through hunger or long-term political violence); or

- Take part in a run-off that they know will result in a firestorm of short-term violence aimed at securing a victory for Bob, and that Zanu-PF will take any and all measures to rig to back up the “legitimate” vote that their violence will secure.

I’m glad I’m not the one making that decision. But for what the opinion of a Zimbabwean exile thousands of miles away is worth: I think they should take part, and use the political contacts they’ve made and support they’ve received from Tsvangirai’s whirlwind diplomacy over the past few weeks to make it as difficult as possible for Zanu-PF to get their way. The tragic but simple fact is that lives are going to be lost either way – and if the MDC genuinely want to minimise the coming disaster, then they need to get rid of Zanu-PF now, or use the run-off to strip them of all legitimacy – which is, after all, what they so desire.

ZEC’s announcement:

“We trust that by Monday, April 28 this process will have been concluded… leading to the announcement of the result of the presidential election,” ZEC chairman George Chiweshe told reporters in Harare.

Chiweshe said the presidential candidates or their agents are expected to meet this week to compare results they will have gathered at each polling station.

“I don’t know whether they are going to bring the same figures and everybody is going to agree from the word go, or whether they will (bring) various figures which need to be looked into and checked and argued about,” Chiweshe said.

“But I can’t say exactly when the results will be coming,” he added.

I wonder if this is finally it.

Rights groups hailed the move as a major victory, a triumph of public opinion over political cynicism. It seems civil society is taking the lead, well ahead of national leaders, on the question of Zimbabwe.

In a rare show of force, African public opinion and civil organisations mobilised on a single issue to force action that politicians seemed reluctant to take.

Peter Alexander, the director for Sociological Studies at the University of Johannesburg, says the ship’s departure was a triumph for civil society: “I am amazed,” he said. “It is very impressive that such a concerted action could have such a concrete result.”

Nicole Fritz, of the Southern African Litigation Centre, which took the case to court, agrees: “The South African authorities have been driven by embarrassment in the face of what civil society has done.”

The An Yue Jiang affair is probably the clearest example of African civil society leading the agenda on Zimbabwe.

And for that, everyone involved can be proud.

Of course, things are still going on that people can be less proud of. The MDC’s Harare offices were raided again this morning, leading to the arrests of over 300 people including people from rural areas who were using the offices as a refuge – more details at New Zimbabwe, who are also reporting that the election recount in Zvimba North conveniently turned up a number of ballot boxes that hadn’t been included the first time around – apparently one polling station was overlooked. The additional votes weren’t enough to overturn the result though, and both the House of Assembly and Senate were retained by Zanu-PF (over the original results, the HoA vote was Zanu-PF +155, MDC/T +13, MDC/M -28; for the Senate, Zanu-PF +261, MDC/T +295)

“There is no need to fight over these results. We must accept the reality that we have lost these elections to the MDC. What is important is to live together in peace, both losers and winners. We do not want violence in this area. We are relatives.

“Most of us lost these elections not because we are not popular in our constituencies. We lost these harmonised elections because of one man. People rejected us because we were campaigning for Mugabe. People in Masvingo have rejected him and we became collateral damage. There is no reason to fight with the MDC over this election. The real problem is that man not us.”

If that’s accurate reporting, then change certainly seems to be in the air. I wonder if what we’re seeing, with this and the Herald’s piece yesterday, is a more level-headed faction within Zanu-PF beginning to reclaim the high ground. We’ll see over the next few weeks.

In the meantime, ZEC have apparently announced that the Presidential results will be announced this weekend. Only 4 weeks late, then – but earlier than some were expecting.

Indeed the Zimbabwean situation is “dire”, but not all is lost. Zimbabwe and Africa and the progressive international community can turn it around.

[...]

Accordingly, the most viable and safest way forward is for the Sadc to mediate negotiations for a transitional government of national unity, which will:

(a) Call on the international community to compel Europe and the US to urgently lift their economic sanctions on Zimbabwe.
(b) Write, with the assistance of experienced Sadc members and the international community, a new constitution for Zimbabwe which will be adopted only after a national referendum.
(c) In collaboration with SADC and invited members of the international community, organise fresh free and fair elections.

2) The Zimbabwe Government and independent international observers are agreed that the just-ended harmonised elections did not produce an outright winner in the presidential race. It is unlikely that the on-going recount will substantively alter that position.

Accordingly, it stands to reason that, the transitional government of national unity, negotiated by the two leading contending parties, under the mediation of Sadc, supported by the international community, should be led by the incumbent president.

“Dire” situation? “Transitional” government of “national unity”? And talk of both from the Herald? Reality must really be beginning to sink in. But wait, it gets better:

The peace and security of Zimbabwe, that it has enjoyed since independence, is at great risk. Whilst the ruling party must stop behaving like a wounded buffalo, the opposition party must stop its hysterics and lapses into delusion.

The ruling party, as the senior and more experienced organisation, both nationally and internationally, needs to show greater self-restraint and maturity, irrespective of how much it might feel justifiably angered by developments in the last few weeks.

Amongst themselves, there will be no harm in Zanu-PF leaders making a candid introspection of themselves, noting past problems and challenges, and rising to counter them with greater determination.

The party should allow MDC-T, now in virtual exile, to return home and freely negotiate its participation in a Sadc-mediated process that should lead to the establishment a transitional government of national unity…

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such strong criticism of Zanu-PF from the state media. The article suggests that Mugabe should be President in any GNU, of course, and doesn’t hold back on criticising the MDC’s recent public proclamations (calling them “hysterics” and “hallucinations”, while also admitting that… “they have already invested substantially in a future stable Zimbabwe for themselves and their children”), but I don’t think the significance of the piece should be ignored.

If the article is a feeler for a settlement, then it’s up to both sides to see what can be done to explore the possibility. I just fear that enough harm has been done on the ground, thanks to recent violence, that there may be no bringing Zanu-PF and the MDC together.

The Herald’s website doesn’t archive their articles, but you can find the full piece at AllAfrica.