It’s pleasing that more African nations are now speaking out – but that’s really all they can do.  It’s really not a pleasant situation.

MDC’s announcement has at least put Zimbabwe back at the top of the news, at least here in the UK.  There’s been a lengthy discussion on the subject on BBC Radio Five this morning – it’s still ongoing as I write this, but once done it’ll be available to stream through the BBC’s Listen Again service for the next week.  Well worth a listen.

They’ve set pre-conditions, including free access to foreign observers & media and an SADC ‘peacekeeping’ force, which are unlikely to be met – but I doubt that will stop them taking part now. The big question is, will he get enough votes to overcome Zanu-PF’s certain attempts to rig the vote – it’s not a simple equation of Tsvangirai’s votes + Makoni’s votes = win, as the growing campaign of violent action against anyone seen as likely to vote MDC testifies. Rather, the MDC are banking on several things to tilt the balance in their favour:

1. That international pressure will force Mugabe to at least stick to the rules of the first round, including scores-on-the-doors that will allow independent observers to get an accurate count.
2. That that same pressure will force Zanu-PF to pull back on the violence once the poll approaches, to give the appearance of freeness and fairness. Remember, it’s the illusion of legitimacy that Mugabe and Zanu-PF crave, making this one of the few times where outside pressure can actually have an effect.
3. That the wave of violence now underway will cause enough Zanu-PF supporters to rethink their position and vote MDC to balance out those who would have voted MDC, but who are now too scared to or have been displaced to locations where they can no longer vote.
4. That, having been the clear leader in all elections so far, they’ll have delivered the message that Zanu-PF can be beaten, and that that message will persuade even more of their support to get out and vote. Remember, turnout in the first round (even allowing for ‘ghosts’ on the voting roll) was low – if MDC can mobilise those who didn’t vote in the first round, they’ll have a chance. But the fear of reprisals is also their greatest enemy

All this assumes that the second round goes ahead at all, of course – by law, the run-off should be held within 3 weeks of the first round, which is now long past; even using ZEC’s interpretation of within 3 weeks of the first round leaves only two weeks to organise the poll, and it’s ironically likely Zanu-PF will use the rising violence as an excuse to postpone the vote for security reasons – giving them longer to try and cower the MDC vote.

The campaign will not be pretty, and further lives will no doubt be lost. But Zimbabwe is now within grasping distance of securing the change that they’ve already voted for – please let this one further push be the last that’s required.

On March 29th the people of Zimbabwe won an historic victory.

That historic and resounding victory should have heralded a new and joyful era for all Zimbabweans. Instead Zimbabweans have endured confusion, pain, death and despair as the result of a violent onslaught against the people by Zanu PF.

As is now well documented, my opponent in this race has decided to turn his thugs on the people. The former liberator has turned his back on the people of Zimbabwe and on the entire continent of Africa.

It is very, very sad for me to call Mugabe a former liberator. It is sad for me to say that he has turned his back on both his people and his continent. Mugabe was once my hero too. Because of his sacrifices, millions of our citizens are well educated and had great opportunities to grow and prosper.

But something happened to Mugabe on our long walk to freedom, something happened that hardened his heart. Something happened that made him abandon the very people he once fought to free.

He has unleashed violence on his own children, the people of Zimbabwe.

And for those carrying out the violence on the ground, the police, the militia, the army and the so called war veterans now is the time to give very serious thought to the implications of further attacks on innocent civilians. You are breaking Zimbabwean and international laws and the whole world is watching.

The time is now for our professional security services to follow their hearts and become professional again, rather than follow a former liberation hero on his path to destruction. You will be in Zimbabwe long after Mugabe is gone.

In view of the unfolding post-election tragedy, the leadership of the MDC, civil society, and all democratic forces have had a very difficult decision to make. We know the betrayal of ballots being followed by bullets. We know that another election may bring more violence, more gloom, more betrayal.

We know there should not be a runoff election – there was only one reason the ZEC announced results before completing verification. We know the verified total would have revealed the full extent of the dictatorship’s defeat – and the full extent of the peoples’ victory.

But we also know a runoff election could finalyl knock-out the dictator for good. A runoff election could be the final round in a very long fight to liberate ourselves from our former liberator.

We know that we have won, but do we nevertheless decide to contest a runoff election to hasten the end of this debacle? Or do we wait and hope for the political environment to improve, for mediation to start, for mediation to end….all the while the people continue to suffer?

I have asked the MDC, civil society and other democratic forces to assess the feeling of the people on the ground. Do they want a runoff election? Will they vote despite the violent attacks? Could they possibly have confidence in the ZEC again?

To be honest, the answers are very mixed. Some report that they believe the people are too afraid to vote, that they are displaced by the destruction of their homes and not even near their polling stations any more. Others point to the fact that the ZEC betrayed them once and will do so again. Others say it is simply not fair to push the people into an election.

I consider all of these valid points of view. No one can dispute that going into an alleged runoff of an election that you have already won – an election controlled by an opponent whose election tactics unapologetically include stealing and killing – is a risky venture indeed.

What matters now is what we, as Zimbabweans, think is the best way to move ourselves out of this crisis. Are we brave enough? Are we strong enough? Are we angry enough?

The overwhelming sentiment that emerged from the people of Zimbabwe is that they are ready for change now, not later. They want a chance for a better life now, and they believe that the MDC can give them that chance. They believe that we as nation are brave enough, we are strong enough and we are angry enough to fight an election once again. We as MDC believe our people would feel betrayed if we shied away from the final knock out. We have lost hundreds of people in the democracy movement since 1999. Their sacrifices must not be in vain. We must fulfill the dreams of our people who have been betrayed and traumatized since March 29th.

The MDC has decided that we will contest the runoff and the people will finally prevail. The people have spoken before, and the people will speak again. I am ready and the people are ready for the final round.

Legally this election should be no later than May 24th, two weeks from today, and that is the date we are preparing for. If Zanu PF and the ZEC hope to retain what little credibility they have left they will abide by the law and declare the Presidential runoff election between today and that date.

Therefore I shall return to Zimbabwe within the next two days.

I shall return to Zimbabwe to begin a Victory Tour. Some might say this term “Victory” is cold and callous given the hardships endured by the people.

But the people are victorious. And they are being punished for their victory. We must free ourselves from those who would steal victory from fellow brothers and sisters by using guns, sticks and screwdrivers.

In the last four weeks many leaders have rallied to the cause of Zimbabwe. To SADC Chairman Mwanamwasa and African Union Chairman Kikwete, and many of your colleagues, I want to say thank you. When Zimbabwe rejoins the family of democratic nations, history will remember what you did for your brave, peace loving African brothers and sisters now living in fear of their own government.

I want to thank the labor unions and Cosatu for refusing to allow the illegitimate regime of Zanu PF to access more weapons for use against its own people.

To Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and others in the international community, we thank you and appreciate all your work. We will continue to count on you, SADC and the AU, to ensure the upcoming runoff is administered fairly, with transparency, neutrality and professionalism.

And finally, I thank the people of Zimbabwe for their courage and devotion to democracy. And I ask them not to lose hope. Together let us finish the job. Together let us have faith that this time, the ballot paper will truly liberate our country.

I thank you.

- Boycott the run-off in the name of saving the lives of their supporters now, and in doing so hand a legitimate victory to Mugabe (who will then continue to ruin the country for another 5 years, costing the Maker knows how many lives in the meantime, whether through hunger or long-term political violence); or

- Take part in a run-off that they know will result in a firestorm of short-term violence aimed at securing a victory for Bob, and that Zanu-PF will take any and all measures to rig to back up the “legitimate” vote that their violence will secure.

I’m glad I’m not the one making that decision. But for what the opinion of a Zimbabwean exile thousands of miles away is worth: I think they should take part, and use the political contacts they’ve made and support they’ve received from Tsvangirai’s whirlwind diplomacy over the past few weeks to make it as difficult as possible for Zanu-PF to get their way. The tragic but simple fact is that lives are going to be lost either way – and if the MDC genuinely want to minimise the coming disaster, then they need to get rid of Zanu-PF now, or use the run-off to strip them of all legitimacy – which is, after all, what they so desire.

A few other key points from the joint press conference given by the two faction leaders:
- MDC would form a government of national unity and this may include former Zanu-PF candidates and independent candidate Simba Makoni;
- the two of them were speaking out against violence – they issued a request to stop violence, and relayed the message to Mugabe that these are crimes against humanity;
- regarding the election ‘count fight’ between ZEC and Zanu PF: MT will raise disputes if the results don’t tally with theirs;
- MDC are working for the peaceful transfer of power and putting national interests ahead of personal interests; and
- there will be no run-off – “the people have spoken”.

I had been hoping the press conference, which was called on very short notice, would be related to the Presidential poll results, but sadly not. Back to the waiting game.