Occasional Zimbabwe Blogger » SADC

No Help At All

maehara — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 09:34:36 +0000

So the official word from the SADC summit is that Zimbabwe should release the results of the Presidential poll as soon as possible, and urges both sides to accept those results. The only problem is that, over two weeks after the polls closed, any results released now are going to be so heavily massaged as to be meaningless, and while the MDC are putting a brave face on things (calling it a “major improvement” in t eh SADC’s position) it’s hardly the robust criticism they were hoping for. SADC have also asked Thabo Mbeki to continue in his role as facilitator between the two parties – but given he doesn’t see any crisis, I doubt he’ll be treating that with much urgency.

Courts are going to be busy over the next few days, too – on top of the decision on MDC’s petition to force the release of the Presidential results, they’re also planning to take action to block the recounts of 23 seats requested by Zanu-PF. This is Zimbabwe has a list of the affected seats – curiously, 7 of the results that Zanu-PF are contesting were won by Zanu-PF, some with huge majorities, and that raises a couple of questions about why Zanu-PF are requesting the recounts. The only people who know for sure are in Zanu-PF, but you can be sure there’s something fishy going on there. The only thing known for certain is that Zanu-PF would regain control of the House of Assembly if its challenges are successful.

MDC have already said they will not accept any recounts as the results of them are likely to be rigged; they’ve also decided not to contest any run-off, because of the likelyhood that there’ll be a wave of violence unleashed. It may be already underway, with “Operation Mavhoterapapi” (“Where you put your ‘X’”) already claiming victims, including one MDC official who was killed on Saturday night. Refusal to engage further in the electoral process raises questions about where MDC can go next – the traditional route of appealing everything through the courts has never worked to date (there are still challenges to the 2000 election results outstanding), and there appears to be no desire for taking to the streets. A general strike has been called for Tuesday – previous calls to strike action haven’t been met with much enthusiasm, but perhaps the prospect of having a clear victory stolen from under their noses will persuade Zimbabweans to stay at home.

No Clue

maehara — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 22:55:17 +0000

I would laugh at Thabo Mbeki’s assertion that there is “no crisis” in Zimbabwe, if it weren’t so clear that there is. I want some of what he’s on, as it’s so clearly mind-altering. His talk, reported by the BBC, about continuing to follow the legal process including a run-off if it’s ever called, also conveniently ignores the fact that a myriad of election laws have already been broken by ZEC & Zanu-PF by this point, and with ZEC having all but disappeared – along with the ballot papers – no-one is going to believe the results when they come out anyway, unless Bob can somehow be coerced into announcing honest results: a Tsvangirai win.

The people we’re relying on to do that coercing are SADC, but with Mbeki already taking the “What problem? I don’t see no problem…” line, I’m not remotely hopeful. There hasn’t been a communiqué from the summit yet to we can assume they’re still talking – what we need to see, though, is action, and soon.

Chickening Out?

maehara — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 22:08:27 +0000

Okay, that’s probably not the phrase to use, but Bob has backed away from attending tomorrow’s SADC summit – although the rent-a-mob seems to be going there without him. Tsvangirai will be there, by invitation, although if the plan was to have him and Mugabe work out a deal under SADC auspices, that now doesn’t look likely. One hopes the snub will provoke a stronger response than SADC may have given if he’d been there.

Would Pay to See…

maehara — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 20:43:00 +0000

Looks like the SADC summit is going to be worth watching after all, as according to the BBC both Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai are due to attend. What I wouldn’t give to see the two of them in the same room…

Which begs the question: Has Morgan been invited, or is he simply crashing the party as the duly elected President of Zimbabwe (as MDC fully believe he is)? If he’s invited, does that mean that SADC are preparing to publicly back him, or are they hoping a deal can be reached behind closed doors? The events of this weekend are looking ever more interesting by the day.

Of course, “interest” is something you can only have from a safe distance. On the ground, things are far more serious.