No such thing as a quiet Friday. BBC News reports that China has finally accepted defeat and recalled the An Yue Jiang (although This is Zimbabwe are still reporting it due in Angola today) - they’re labelling the decision “victory for civic society”:

Rights groups hailed the move as a major victory, a triumph of public opinion over political cynicism. It seems civil society is taking the lead, well ahead of national leaders, on the question of Zimbabwe.

In a rare show of force, African public opinion and civil organisations mobilised on a single issue to force action that politicians seemed reluctant to take.

Peter Alexander, the director for Sociological Studies at the University of Johannesburg, says the ship’s departure was a triumph for civil society: “I am amazed,” he said. “It is very impressive that such a concerted action could have such a concrete result.”

Nicole Fritz, of the Southern African Litigation Centre, which took the case to court, agrees: “The South African authorities have been driven by embarrassment in the face of what civil society has done.”

The An Yue Jiang affair is probably the clearest example of African civil society leading the agenda on Zimbabwe.

And for that, everyone involved can be proud.

Of course, things are still going on that people can be less proud of. The MDC’s Harare offices were raided again this morning, leading to the arrests of over 300 people including people from rural areas who were using the offices as a refuge - more details at New Zimbabwe, who are also reporting that the election recount in Zvimba North conveniently turned up a number of ballot boxes that hadn’t been included the first time around - apparently one polling station was overlooked. The additional votes weren’t enough to overturn the result though, and both the House of Assembly and Senate were retained by Zanu-PF (over the original results, the HoA vote was Zanu-PF +155, MDC/T +13, MDC/M -28; for the Senate, Zanu-PF +261, MDC/T +295)

So far, all the recounts that I’m aware of being completed have resulted in no change - a few votes either way, but not enough to affect the outcome. That’s Zaka West, Gutu East, West & Central (all MDC) and Goromonzi West (Zanu-PF). Notable, though, was a speech given at the Gutu recounts by the losing Zanu-PF senate candidate, General Vitalis Zvinavashe, reported by New Zimbabwe:

“There is no need to fight over these results. We must accept the reality that we have lost these elections to the MDC. What is important is to live together in peace, both losers and winners. We do not want violence in this area. We are relatives.

“Most of us lost these elections not because we are not popular in our constituencies. We lost these harmonised elections because of one man. People rejected us because we were campaigning for Mugabe. People in Masvingo have rejected him and we became collateral damage. There is no reason to fight with the MDC over this election. The real problem is that man not us.”

If that’s accurate reporting, then change certainly seems to be in the air. I wonder if what we’re seeing, with this and the Herald’s piece yesterday, is a more level-headed faction within Zanu-PF beginning to reclaim the high ground. We’ll see over the next few weeks.

In the meantime, ZEC have apparently announced that the Presidential results will be announced this weekend. Only 4 weeks late, then - but earlier than some were expecting.

There’s an interesting comment piece in today’s Herald and picked up on by the BBC that, while indulging in the usual bashing of the West, would suggest that Zanu-PF may be beginning to realise that they can’t completely steal this election. On the assumption that the Herald is the State mouthpiece and won’t publish anything without at least tacit approval from Zanu-PF, then the following extracts raise some interesting points:

Indeed the Zimbabwean situation is “dire”, but not all is lost. Zimbabwe and Africa and the progressive international community can turn it around.

[...]

Accordingly, the most viable and safest way forward is for the Sadc to mediate negotiations for a transitional government of national unity, which will:

(a) Call on the international community to compel Europe and the US to urgently lift their economic sanctions on Zimbabwe.
(b) Write, with the assistance of experienced Sadc members and the international community, a new constitution for Zimbabwe which will be adopted only after a national referendum.
(c) In collaboration with SADC and invited members of the international community, organise fresh free and fair elections.

2) The Zimbabwe Government and independent international observers are agreed that the just-ended harmonised elections did not produce an outright winner in the presidential race. It is unlikely that the on-going recount will substantively alter that position.

Accordingly, it stands to reason that, the transitional government of national unity, negotiated by the two leading contending parties, under the mediation of Sadc, supported by the international community, should be led by the incumbent president.

“Dire” situation? “Transitional” government of “national unity”? And talk of both from the Herald? Reality must really be beginning to sink in. But wait, it gets better:

The peace and security of Zimbabwe, that it has enjoyed since independence, is at great risk. Whilst the ruling party must stop behaving like a wounded buffalo, the opposition party must stop its hysterics and lapses into delusion.

The ruling party, as the senior and more experienced organisation, both nationally and internationally, needs to show greater self-restraint and maturity, irrespective of how much it might feel justifiably angered by developments in the last few weeks.

Amongst themselves, there will be no harm in Zanu-PF leaders making a candid introspection of themselves, noting past problems and challenges, and rising to counter them with greater determination.

The party should allow MDC-T, now in virtual exile, to return home and freely negotiate its participation in a Sadc-mediated process that should lead to the establishment a transitional government of national unity…

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such strong criticism of Zanu-PF from the state media. The article suggests that Mugabe should be President in any GNU, of course, and doesn’t hold back on criticising the MDC’s recent public proclamations (calling them “hysterics” and “hallucinations”, while also admitting that… “they have already invested substantially in a future stable Zimbabwe for themselves and their children”), but I don’t think the significance of the piece should be ignored.

If the article is a feeler for a settlement, then it’s up to both sides to see what can be done to explore the possibility. I just fear that enough harm has been done on the ground, thanks to recent violence, that there may be no bringing Zanu-PF and the MDC together.

The Herald’s website doesn’t archive their articles, but you can find the full piece at AllAfrica.

The Institue for Democracy in South Africa has a report on the counting delays - they’ve done some poring over the relevant legislation, and they’re not buying ZEC’s excuses. You can get the full report from their website [PDF document] and they do go into some detail, but if you’re remotely interested in the legalities of the count, then it’s well worth a read. Thanks to This is Zimbabwe for the link.

You couldn’t make it up. Moses Moyo over at Zimbabwe Today claims to have a reliable source within ZEC, who has been keeping him informed of the progress of the weekend’s (illegal) recounts, and makes this report:

…the recounts of both votes, which are unjustified and quite possibly illegal, began on Saturday - and by halfway through the afternoon it became quite clear to the Zanu-PF officials in attendance that those doing the counting had mis-counted yet again.

There were the piles of votes. The recounts of 16 parliamentary constituencies had been completed. Each had originally been won by the MDC. Each, in the recount, had also been won by the MDC - in some cases, by an even greater majority than before.

The Presidential election recount was also proceeding on schedule. The original count gave MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai a clear and conclusive lead over President Robert Mugabe of Zanu-PF. And the recount? Yes, it was showing very much the same result.

At this point the Zanu-PF officials stepped in, to demand that the recount be recounted, and, weak-kneed as ever, the ZEC people agreed. And the counting began all over again. And is still going on. And on and on.

So the situation seems to be “keep counting until you get the result we tell you to”. It’s no wonder Zanu-PF have left Zimbabwe’s economy in the situation that it’s in, when they quite clearly can’t even rig an election properly. I’d be laughing if it wasn’t such a tragic and dangerous situation…

At a press conference in Jo’burg on Sunday, the MDC’s Tendai Biti termed the situation in Zimbabwe “war” and urged African leaders and the UN to intervene - the death toll amongst MDC supporters no stands at 10, with “hundreds” injured after reprisal beatings and “thousands” displaced, trying to avoid the violence. Never mind large numbers that have been arrested. The situation that they paint is one of a country sliding towards civil war, with the party trying hard to keep a lid on the rising frustrations amongst its supporters but aware that the longer the current uncertainty continues, the more likely it’ll be that there’ll be a response to Zanu-PF’s violence. Reports from other sources seem to indicate that may not be far away either, with tensions in the townships already high.

A violent response would, of course, allow Mugabe to wriggle out of the election in other ways, and is probably just what he’s hoping will happen. If that fails, the Zimbabwe Today has details of a possible Plan B that would see the Presidential vote re-run from scratch.

In the meantime, the “re-count” of some constituency votes continues, with ZEC claiming it will take a few days to complete - remember, these counts were all completed within a few days after polling closed, so if that’s a genuine excuse then the ZEC are criminally incompetent - and since the High Court ordered a few days ago that the recounts should not proceed, they’re engaging in criminal activity of another kind.

In the meantime, calls for action are growing louder - former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan joined the chorus on Saturday, and current SG Ban Ki-Moon is planning to raise the issue at a UN summit in Ghana this week. But if African leaders have so far managed to fiddle while Zimbabwe burns, what are the chances of any of them stepping up to the plate now?

Rather than repeat what others have already dug up about the Chinese arms shipment, here’s a link to Sokwanele’s consolidated post on the issue - it has details of the current situation and will be regularly updated with news as the get it.

More on the Chinese arms currently parked off Durban, courtesy of The Times of South Africa - and more for the South African Government to be thoroughly ashamed of.

First of all, the shipment was expected and approved of by the government’s National Conventional Arms Control Committee (NCACC), whose scrutiny committee met earlier in the week and approved the shipment. That scrutiny committee is chaired by Defence Secretary January Masilela:

“This is a normal transaction between two sovereign states. We are doing our legal part and we don’t have to interfere.”

The UK has an arms embargo against Zimbabwe, but China’s not party to it. SA Government spokesman Themba Maseko, who had earlier been stating that South Africa’s position on Zimbabwe had not been made as clear as it should have, had this gem for us:

“South Africa is not at all involved in the arrangement, it’s a matter between the two countries. It would be possible, but very difficult for SA to start intervening and saying that we will not allow the shipment through.”

That’s in the name of maintaining South Africa’s role as a neutral mediator, if you believe the PR - except that allowing one of those sides to arm itself, the side that is already engaged in a campaign of mass violent intimidation, is hardly a neutral act. It’s very far indeed from a neutral act.

As you’d expect, sources outside the SA Government have been quick to condemn any possibility that arms for Zimbabwe could transit through SA. Democratic Alliance’s (the SA opposition party) Rafeek Shah said that this was…

“…the surest sign yet that government has completely lost the plot on the Zimbabwe issue. The world’s astonishment at President Mbeki’s political defence of Robert Mugabe will likely turn into outright anger as we are now not only denying the existence of a crisis in Zimbabwe, but also actively facilitating the arming of an increasingly despotic and desperate regime.”

Frans Cronje of the SA Institute of Race Relations:

“it would be unconscionable for South Africa to allow an arms consignment through its borders en route to Zimbabwe. [If the shipment went ahead, then] South Africa’s culpability in the Zimbabwe crisis would then be without question”.

Kallie Kriel, of AfriForum, stated that his organisation was organising..

“…an extensive campaign of peaceful demonstrations in an effort to prevent [this] consignment of Chinese arms from being transported from Durban across South African territory to Zimbabwe”.

But best of all is the response of the SA Transport and Allied Workers Union, who have stated that they will not unload the cargo should it dock, and have issued the following statement:

“Satawu does not agree with the position of the South African government not to intervene with this shipment of weapons. Our members employed at Durban Container Terminal will not unload this cargo neither will any of our members in the truck driving sector move this cargo by road.

South Africa cannot be seen to be facilitating the flow of weapons into Zimbabwe at a time where there is a political dispute and a volatile situation between the Zanu-PF and the MDC.”

The United Transport and Allied Trades Union also has serious concerns, but has not yet decided on the matter of unloading the ship.

No surprise, then, that Morgan Tsvangirai has called for Mbeki to be replaced as SADC’s mediator, suggesting Zambia’s Levy Mwanawasa should take over the job. MDC are also back in court, this time with a legal challenge to the recounts due to begin on Saturday - the hearing has been set for tomorrow (April 18th). Didn’t think the court would sit on Independence Day - perhaps someone (in this case Justice Antonia Guvava) has realised that there is actually some urgency about all this…

Sources: Zim-bound arms cargo was approved | SA won’t interfere in Zimbabwe-China arms deal | Union refuses to unload arms ship

Looks like the message may finally be getting through to Thabo “No Crisis” Mbeki, if a BBC report is anything to go by - up until now South African criticism of the election fiasco has been coming from the ANC and other non-governmental bodies, but now Government spokesman Themba Maseko has joined the growing chorus:

South African spokesman Themba Maseko told the BBC there was a fear that the situation in Zimbabwe could deteriorate because the results of the presidential poll had not been released.

“It is our view that all the participants should come together, sort out all the causes of the delay, and then release the results as a matter of urgency,” he said.

When asked whether South Africa still adhered to a policy of “quiet diplomacy” in dealings with Zimbabwe, Mr Maseko said that South Africa’s position had not “been coming out as clearly as it should”.

Didn’t know until now that they had a position, other than “wait and see”.

In the meantime, it’s Independence Day tomorrow, not that it’ll be worth celebrating for anyone.  Preparations are already being made for Bob to address his adoring people at a rally at Gwanzura Stadium in Highfield (a ZPL football match has apparently been organised, to lure in the unfaithful), as if business continued as usual.  In the meantime, the MDC’s Arthur Mutambara (he of the ‘breakaway’ faction) has issued his own Independence address to the nation - you can read it at Kubatana - calling for the two MDCs and Jonothan Moyo to convene Parliament, even without its Zanu-PF members, and start putting the essential business of change into motion:

In a way, the people of Zimbabwe and the opposition forces are underestimating the critical role and power of the House of Representatives. This is probably because for the past 28 years it was rendered a docile and ineffectual institution due to its domination by ZANU-PF. Now that we are in control of this legislative organ of the State, let us demonstrate its true function and impact. The 110 opposition Members of Parliament (from the two MDC formations and the Independent MP) must informally convene, immediately. They should elect the Speaker, and outline a comprehensive agenda for the incoming Parliament. Items that should be debated and adopted must include, but not limited to:

(1) Impeachment of the caretaker President, Robert Mugabe
(2) Removal of AIPPA and POSA
(3) Establishment of processes for achieving a people-driven democratic constitution
(4) Immediate prosecution of public servants, including military and police officers who are currently abusing their authority
(5) Establishment of processes to rationalize the land reform program
(6) Setting up of a Truth and Justice Commission for Gukurahundi and Murambatsvina
(7) Immediate removal from office, and criminal prosecution of, the RBZ Governor, Gideon Gono
(8) Dismantling and reconstitution of ZEC.

Although this gathering of, and resolutions adopted by these 110 MPs will be informal, a framework for the terms of reference of the formally convened House is thus created. As these MPs constitute the majority they will use this informal platform to drive the Parliamentary agenda. This will send shivers down the spines of that illegal cabal running our country, as reality will suddenly sink in. The game is up! We need to demonstrate that Mugabe has lost and that the people have won. Even without the Presidential results we can unequivocally say that the Zimbabwean political landscape will never be the same again. ZANU-PF understands what has happened. They clearly appreciate the significance of their Parliamentary loss. This is why they are busy trying to reverse their poor fortunes through recounts and court actions. The opposition forces must both out think and outmaneuver these ZANU-PF losers who are running all over the place like headless chickens.

I doubt Mugabe would stand by and allow any such “informal” Parliament to meet, but the idea is sound - and it would certainly be interesting to see what response any such move met.  There’s also a need for the MDC to do something on the ground, instead of allowing the momentum they gained by winning this election to continually drain away.

A less-than-subtle message for Thabo Mbeki was flown over New York yesterday to coincide with his address to the UN Security Council.  Hopefully he didn’t miss it.

Meanwhile, Zanu-PF seem to have decided that asking foreign nations to call for election results to be released is treasonous - according to “Justice Minister” Patrick Chinamasa, at least, who’s accusing Morgan Tsvangirai of same.  And delibrately withholding and/or rigging the results of an election is, what, precisely?  The Herald, bastion of quality journalism that it is, also accuses the MDC (based on a letter it has conveniently obtained) of working with the UK to achieve regime change in the country.  Back to our old friend Chinamasa:

“It is clear from the correspondence that Tsvangirai along with Brown are seeking regime change in Zimbabwe, and on the part of Tsvangirai. This is treasonous.”

Note to Chinamasa, and his colleagues: it’s your own people who want regime change, and having the temerity to win an election you thought you’d rigged in your favour isn’t treason.  You’re just not listening.