More on the Chinese arms currently parked off Durban, courtesy of The Times of South Africa – and more for the South African Government to be thoroughly ashamed of.

First of all, the shipment was expected and approved of by the government’s National Conventional Arms Control Committee (NCACC), whose scrutiny committee met earlier in the week and approved the shipment. That scrutiny committee is chaired by Defence Secretary January Masilela:

“This is a normal transaction between two sovereign states. We are doing our legal part and we don’t have to interfere.”

The UK has an arms embargo against Zimbabwe, but China’s not party to it. SA Government spokesman Themba Maseko, who had earlier been stating that South Africa’s position on Zimbabwe had not been made as clear as it should have, had this gem for us:

“South Africa is not at all involved in the arrangement, it’s a matter between the two countries. It would be possible, but very difficult for SA to start intervening and saying that we will not allow the shipment through.”

That’s in the name of maintaining South Africa’s role as a neutral mediator, if you believe the PR – except that allowing one of those sides to arm itself, the side that is already engaged in a campaign of mass violent intimidation, is hardly a neutral act. It’s very far indeed from a neutral act.

As you’d expect, sources outside the SA Government have been quick to condemn any possibility that arms for Zimbabwe could transit through SA. Democratic Alliance’s (the SA opposition party) Rafeek Shah said that this was…

“…the surest sign yet that government has completely lost the plot on the Zimbabwe issue. The world’s astonishment at President Mbeki’s political defence of Robert Mugabe will likely turn into outright anger as we are now not only denying the existence of a crisis in Zimbabwe, but also actively facilitating the arming of an increasingly despotic and desperate regime.”

Frans Cronje of the SA Institute of Race Relations:

“it would be unconscionable for South Africa to allow an arms consignment through its borders en route to Zimbabwe. [If the shipment went ahead, then] South Africa’s culpability in the Zimbabwe crisis would then be without question”.

Kallie Kriel, of AfriForum, stated that his organisation was organising..

“…an extensive campaign of peaceful demonstrations in an effort to prevent [this] consignment of Chinese arms from being transported from Durban across South African territory to Zimbabwe”.

But best of all is the response of the SA Transport and Allied Workers Union, who have stated that they will not unload the cargo should it dock, and have issued the following statement:

“Satawu does not agree with the position of the South African government not to intervene with this shipment of weapons. Our members employed at Durban Container Terminal will not unload this cargo neither will any of our members in the truck driving sector move this cargo by road.

South Africa cannot be seen to be facilitating the flow of weapons into Zimbabwe at a time where there is a political dispute and a volatile situation between the Zanu-PF and the MDC.”

The United Transport and Allied Trades Union also has serious concerns, but has not yet decided on the matter of unloading the ship.

No surprise, then, that Morgan Tsvangirai has called for Mbeki to be replaced as SADC’s mediator, suggesting Zambia’s Levy Mwanawasa should take over the job. MDC are also back in court, this time with a legal challenge to the recounts due to begin on Saturday – the hearing has been set for tomorrow (April 18th). Didn’t think the court would sit on Independence Day – perhaps someone (in this case Justice Antonia Guvava) has realised that there is actually some urgency about all this…

Sources: Zim-bound arms cargo was approved | SA won’t interfere in Zimbabwe-China arms deal | Union refuses to unload arms ship

Looks like the message may finally be getting through to Thabo “No Crisis” Mbeki, if a BBC report is anything to go by – up until now South African criticism of the election fiasco has been coming from the ANC and other non-governmental bodies, but now Government spokesman Themba Maseko has joined the growing chorus:

South African spokesman Themba Maseko told the BBC there was a fear that the situation in Zimbabwe could deteriorate because the results of the presidential poll had not been released.

“It is our view that all the participants should come together, sort out all the causes of the delay, and then release the results as a matter of urgency,” he said.

When asked whether South Africa still adhered to a policy of “quiet diplomacy” in dealings with Zimbabwe, Mr Maseko said that South Africa’s position had not “been coming out as clearly as it should”.

Didn’t know until now that they had a position, other than “wait and see”.

In the meantime, it’s Independence Day tomorrow, not that it’ll be worth celebrating for anyone.  Preparations are already being made for Bob to address his adoring people at a rally at Gwanzura Stadium in Highfield (a ZPL football match has apparently been organised, to lure in the unfaithful), as if business continued as usual.  In the meantime, the MDC’s Arthur Mutambara (he of the ‘breakaway’ faction) has issued his own Independence address to the nation – you can read it at Kubatana – calling for the two MDCs and Jonothan Moyo to convene Parliament, even without its Zanu-PF members, and start putting the essential business of change into motion:

In a way, the people of Zimbabwe and the opposition forces are underestimating the critical role and power of the House of Representatives. This is probably because for the past 28 years it was rendered a docile and ineffectual institution due to its domination by ZANU-PF. Now that we are in control of this legislative organ of the State, let us demonstrate its true function and impact. The 110 opposition Members of Parliament (from the two MDC formations and the Independent MP) must informally convene, immediately. They should elect the Speaker, and outline a comprehensive agenda for the incoming Parliament. Items that should be debated and adopted must include, but not limited to:

(1) Impeachment of the caretaker President, Robert Mugabe
(2) Removal of AIPPA and POSA
(3) Establishment of processes for achieving a people-driven democratic constitution
(4) Immediate prosecution of public servants, including military and police officers who are currently abusing their authority
(5) Establishment of processes to rationalize the land reform program
(6) Setting up of a Truth and Justice Commission for Gukurahundi and Murambatsvina
(7) Immediate removal from office, and criminal prosecution of, the RBZ Governor, Gideon Gono
(8) Dismantling and reconstitution of ZEC.

Although this gathering of, and resolutions adopted by these 110 MPs will be informal, a framework for the terms of reference of the formally convened House is thus created. As these MPs constitute the majority they will use this informal platform to drive the Parliamentary agenda. This will send shivers down the spines of that illegal cabal running our country, as reality will suddenly sink in. The game is up! We need to demonstrate that Mugabe has lost and that the people have won. Even without the Presidential results we can unequivocally say that the Zimbabwean political landscape will never be the same again. ZANU-PF understands what has happened. They clearly appreciate the significance of their Parliamentary loss. This is why they are busy trying to reverse their poor fortunes through recounts and court actions. The opposition forces must both out think and outmaneuver these ZANU-PF losers who are running all over the place like headless chickens.

I doubt Mugabe would stand by and allow any such “informal” Parliament to meet, but the idea is sound – and it would certainly be interesting to see what response any such move met.  There’s also a need for the MDC to do something on the ground, instead of allowing the momentum they gained by winning this election to continually drain away.

A less-than-subtle message for Thabo Mbeki was flown over New York yesterday to coincide with his address to the UN Security Council.  Hopefully he didn’t miss it.

Meanwhile, Zanu-PF seem to have decided that asking foreign nations to call for election results to be released is treasonous – according to “Justice Minister” Patrick Chinamasa, at least, who’s accusing Morgan Tsvangirai of same.  And delibrately withholding and/or rigging the results of an election is, what, precisely?  The Herald, bastion of quality journalism that it is, also accuses the MDC (based on a letter it has conveniently obtained) of working with the UK to achieve regime change in the country.  Back to our old friend Chinamasa:

“It is clear from the correspondence that Tsvangirai along with Brown are seeking regime change in Zimbabwe, and on the part of Tsvangirai. This is treasonous.”

Note to Chinamasa, and his colleagues: it’s your own people who want regime change, and having the temerity to win an election you thought you’d rigged in your favour isn’t treason.  You’re just not listening.

SW Radio Africa reports that students at the National University of Science and Technology at Bulawayo have rioted on campus, during protests calling for Mugabe to stand down.  There has also been a statement from the President of the Zimbabwe National Students Union, Clever Bere, that the country’s students won’t stand by if the election results aren’t what people know they should be:

Students at the National University of Science and Technology in Bulawayo rioted on campus Wednesday, demanding that Robert Mugabe step down as Chancellor of the University. The demonstration is said to have turned violent when riot police entered the campus and started beating up students indiscriminately. Angry students then turned on one member of the police force who was brandishing a pistol, and stoned him. Several cars and buildings were stoned during the skirmishes.

The students are angry about the poor educational standards in the country and blame Mugabe’s misrule for their plight. They also demanded a release of presidential election results, which have still not been announced 18 days after Zimbabweans voted. Zimbabwe National Students Union President Clever Bere warned Mugabe that students would make the country ‘ungovernable’ if he tried to ‘steal’ the election.

The students have declared they will go on an indefinite class boycott while they wait for new a Chancellor to be installed. They said Mugabe’s term expired on March 28th. Meanwhile another statement from ZINASU says over 300 students at the University of Zimbabwe in Harare demonstrated against the withholding of presidential election results. A branch of the Commercial Bank of Zimbabwe (CBZ), which operates from campus, was shut down during the protest.

Source, and more at Zimbabwe Today, who add this little nugget:

A student leader told me: “Until the election results are known, there will be no classes at this campus. Mugabe should know that, as students, we are prepared to die for democracy in our country.”

Meanwhile, Thabo Mbeki has been trying to defend his stance on Zimbabwe against growing criticism, even from within his own party.  Apparently…

“The solution to the problem of Zimbabwe lies in the hands of the people of Zimbabwe. In our engagement with the situation, we needed to talk continuously at all times with both the ruling party and the opposition.”

Uh, hello?  The talking doesn’t appear to be working – and having the South African authorities release weapons to the ‘interim’ government isn’t what I’d call “helping”.  It’s also notable that Mbeki failed to mention Zimbabwe during yesterday’s US Security Council meeting – ironic, since he’d called it himself to discuss how best to bring peace to Africa’s conflicts.  If he doesn’t do something useful, and soon, he’s quite likely to have one of those conflicts on his own border – and yet he seems to be the only person who doesn’t realise this.

Okay, this just in from the “what the f*ck?” department. Two separate but probably related stories:

First up, armed Chinese soldiers have been seen on the streets of Mutare:

However … there was a surprise presence of Chinese soldiers armed with revolvers in the city. The Chinese, together with about 70 Zimbabwean senior army officers are staying at the Holiday Inn, in the city’s central business district. There are about 10 Chinese soldiers.

“We were shocked to see Chinese soldiers in their full military regalia and armed with pistols checking at the hotel,” said one worker. “When they signed checking-in forms they did not indicate the nature of the business that they are doing and even their addresses.”

No official comment could be obtained from the authorities here on this issue.

Source. No, I don’t think there will be – after all, accepting help from foreign donors is just another way of seeing the great nation of Zimbabwe become recolonised, or so we’re told when it’s the MDC we’re talking about. But as if that weren’t bad enough, strange things are afoot down in Durban, where a Chinese cargo ship has docked, apparently carrying weapons destined for Zimbabwe:

The SA Police Explosives Unit confirmed on Wednesday that an uncleared Chinese vessel docked at the outer anchorage of the Port of Durban is carrying arms. Customs revealed that the shipment was destined for Zimbabwe. Inspector Nicholas Gunther of the SA Explosives Unit in Durban told Sapa the vessel – called ‘An Yue Jiang’ – was carrying a shipment of arms.

“We went there just now and they are not being allowed in,” he said. “There was a problem with the documents they submitted and we have directed the matter to the Chief Inspector of Explosives in Pretoria, Senior Superintendent van Sittert and it may take days for them to get clearance,” said Gunther.

Source. And so we see just how desperate Bob – or those now pulling his strings – seems to be to keep hold of power in Zimbabwe.

Meanwhile, but Morgan Tsvangirai and, importantly, the ANC itself have criticised Thabo Mbeki for his assertion that “there is no crisis” in Zimbabwe. First up, the President-in-waiting, speaking in an interview with South Africa’s e.tv:

“I’m sure Zimbabweans and the international community were shocked at the conclusion of that statement. I’m sure that such a misrepresentation creates the perception of quiet approval, which I think is quite shocking.

I can’t explain what informs his position; because that kind of position runs contradictory to my interaction with him.”

And then there’s the ANC, South Africa’s ruling party, whose National Working Committee met on Monday night in Cape Town – the group’s spokesperson Jesse Duarte made the following comments afterwards:

“The ANC regards Zanu-PF as an ally. However, it is concerned with the state of crisis that Zimbabwe is in and perceives this as negative for the entire Southern African Development Community region.”

Duarte said the ANC accepted that Mbeki, who had been re-appointed to mediate between Zanu-PF and the two Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) factions by the SADC, “has cause to remain neutral”.

The ANC again called on the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission to announce the election results without delay. A run-off suggested a lack of respect for the will of the people of Zimbabwe and would be “undemocratic”.

“The ANC will contact Zanu-PF and the MDC separately with a view to hold party-to-party dialogue on the situation in Zimbabwe,” she said.

That’s not the only criticism from within the ANC. Party chairman, and Speaker of South Africa’s National Assembly, Baleka Mbete has called the Zimbabwean situation “democracy gone wrong”; ANC Secretary General Gwede Mantashe has been critical of Zanu-PF clearly preparing the ground for a run-off when the results haven’t even been announced yet, saying that…

“By asking for that kind of election you’re sending out the message that you know what the results are but don’t want to publicise them. What it comes down to is that the voters’ wishes are being disregarded. What’s happening there is unacceptable.”

…while ANC Treasurer General Mathews Phosa has said that…

“We can’t ignore what is happening on our borders. The numerous respected leaders of our country, region and continent must urgently play a constructive role in the mediation process to ensure that we respect the choices of the voters. If the election results are available, as some parties and observers claim, then they must be made public. We as a region cannot afford that the short-term damage becomes a long-term problem.”

Mbeki’s position is that a hard line approach could be counter-productive, but surely there comes a time when it’s clear that that softly-softly approach isn’t working? Surely, with growing reports of politically-motivated violence and now apparent foreign support for the party sponsoring that violence, that time is now?

I haven’t been following things Zimbabwean quite so closely these past few days, as it’s become so disheartening and frustrating. The general strike called by the MDC has had only limited support, thanks to a combination of bad publicity – it’s not like ZTV or The Herald are going to give it any mention – and the simple practicalities of life in Zimbabwe: most people just can’t afford to go without pay. With the High Court refusing to order the release of results, and ZEC using Zanu-PF’s (probably illegal) recount requests as an excuse to hold them back even further, there’s little sign of resolution.

In the rural areas, things are grim, with reports now of mutilations on top of the beatings already widely reported – with the MDC’s “salute” being an open hand, it seems some of the militia have now taken to cutting off the hands of MDC supporters.

MDC are flip-flopping on the idea of participating in a re-run – on the one hand, they know they’ve won the first round outright, and that participating in a second round is only going to increase the level of violence and legitimize official first-round results that everyone knows will be nowhere near accurate. On the other hand, refusing to take part simply hands Mugabe the Presidency, within the terms of the laws of the land, and gives him free reign to do whatever he likes for another 5 years – which will probably include increased violence against MDC supporters anyway. So now the line is that they’ll take part, but only if certain conditions are met:

MDC spokesman George Sibotshiwe said a secure environment had to exist first, with thorough international monitoring. But current conditions did not allow for a free and fair vote, he said.

The party would only take part if the Southern African Development Community could help oversee every stage of the count, he added.

Meanwhile, a petition has been launched to try and persuade Thabo Mbeki to come back to reality (he’s due to chair a special meeting of the UN Security Council on Wednesday, where Zimbabwe is almost certain to be raised), while there are plans for a protest at the Zimbabwean Embassy in London to mark Independence Day – or in this case, the country’s lack of independence from Bob. But as ever, there’s a fine line for those who would criticise Mugabe to tread, as criticism tends to fuel his persecution complex and make the situation worse – especially when such criticism comes from white, “colonial” countries. The BBC has an article that looks at this particular problem.

Put it all together, and the result is stalemate – certainly for as long at the MDC remain focussed on gaining support outside the country and not provoking Mugabe inside it. I fear the idea of the situation turning more violent than it already is, but I’m also beginning to wonder if there’s going to come a point when enough is enough and the people will take to the streets. If it ever happens, that will be the moment of truth for Zanu-PF and Mugabe – regardless of what the military commanders may say, and it certainly seems to be their hands that are guiding the situation at the moment, if the soldiers and policemen on the street refuse to respond, then it’s game over. But with MDC not being sure of who those groups would side with, they’re not prepared to take the risk of pushing for a “velvet revolution”. More’s the pity, some might say…

The BBC reports that the MDC’s petition to force the release of the Presidential poll results has been rejected – there are no details yet, but on the face of it that gives Zanu-PF a free license to sit on the results for as long as they like.  If the court can’t or won’t order the release, then I have a sneaking suspicion they’ll simply never be released – the news media is fickle, and with its attention already drifting to other things Mugabe knows that if he can hold on for a few more weeks, he can hold on for as long as he likes.

So what next?  I honestly don’t know – SADC won’t back the MDC (appeals for “both parties to honour the election results” mean nothing), Zimbabwe’s courts won’t back them – although the High Court appears to have ordered that the recounts requested by Zanu-PF can’t proceed until the Presidential results are announced – and international pressure from other sources just pisses Bob off and makes him more likely to lash out.  From the position two weeks ago where it looked as though he was down to his last few hours in power, now it looks as though he’s going to get his way – and by any measure, that’s just not right.  Now watch as the world mutters its half-hearted condemnation, and leaves Zimbabwe to rot some more.

So the official word from the SADC summit is that Zimbabwe should release the results of the Presidential poll as soon as possible, and urges both sides to accept those results. The only problem is that, over two weeks after the polls closed, any results released now are going to be so heavily massaged as to be meaningless, and while the MDC are putting a brave face on things (calling it a “major improvement” in t eh SADC’s position) it’s hardly the robust criticism they were hoping for. SADC have also asked Thabo Mbeki to continue in his role as facilitator between the two parties – but given he doesn’t see any crisis, I doubt he’ll be treating that with much urgency.

Courts are going to be busy over the next few days, too – on top of the decision on MDC’s petition to force the release of the Presidential results, they’re also planning to take action to block the recounts of 23 seats requested by Zanu-PF. This is Zimbabwe has a list of the affected seats – curiously, 7 of the results that Zanu-PF are contesting were won by Zanu-PF, some with huge majorities, and that raises a couple of questions about why Zanu-PF are requesting the recounts. The only people who know for sure are in Zanu-PF, but you can be sure there’s something fishy going on there. The only thing known for certain is that Zanu-PF would regain control of the House of Assembly if its challenges are successful.

MDC have already said they will not accept any recounts as the results of them are likely to be rigged; they’ve also decided not to contest any run-off, because of the likelyhood that there’ll be a wave of violence unleashed. It may be already underway, with “Operation Mavhoterapapi” (“Where you put your ‘X’”) already claiming victims, including one MDC official who was killed on Saturday night. Refusal to engage further in the electoral process raises questions about where MDC can go next – the traditional route of appealing everything through the courts has never worked to date (there are still challenges to the 2000 election results outstanding), and there appears to be no desire for taking to the streets. A general strike has been called for Tuesday – previous calls to strike action haven’t been met with much enthusiasm, but perhaps the prospect of having a clear victory stolen from under their noses will persuade Zimbabweans to stay at home.

I would laugh at Thabo Mbeki’s assertion that there is “no crisis” in Zimbabwe, if it weren’t so clear that there is.  I want some of what he’s on, as it’s so clearly mind-altering.  His talk, reported by the BBC, about continuing to follow the legal process including a run-off if it’s ever called, also conveniently ignores the fact that a myriad of election laws have already been broken by ZEC & Zanu-PF by this point, and with ZEC having all but disappeared – along with the ballot papers – no-one is going to believe the results when they come out anyway, unless Bob can somehow be coerced into announcing honest results: a Tsvangirai win.

The people we’re relying on to do that coercing are SADC, but with Mbeki already taking the “What problem?  I don’t see no problem…” line, I’m not remotely hopeful.  There hasn’t been a communiqué from the summit yet to we can assume they’re still talking – what we need to see, though, is action, and soon.

Okay, that’s probably not the phrase to use, but Bob has backed away from attending tomorrow’s SADC summit – although the rent-a-mob seems to be going there without him.  Tsvangirai will be there, by invitation, although if the plan was to have him and Mugabe work out a deal under SADC auspices, that now doesn’t look likely.  One hopes the snub will provoke a stronger response than SADC may have given if he’d been there.